TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c518.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.31,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes28c429.4$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.41,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes29c364.51$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.1995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes32c362.87$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No64c292.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c290.18$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.014,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes35c274.32$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2125261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No15c235.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No75c227.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.632,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes39c208.56$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.615527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes10c177.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.81,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c162.07$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes23c132.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1216836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c132.03$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.444,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c123$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c120$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.874,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c119.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.445,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes12c114.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5838454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes32c110.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2428946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes15c110.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0517511.4%20 W · 155 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes40c100.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.557749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6413637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c90.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.524,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No67c89.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No70c85.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No73c85.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.353,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.853,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c75.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.968,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes33c73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4942148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.284,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.195,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c68.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.753,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes34c66.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes35c60.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3954735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No67c59.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1929443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c56.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes33c55.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6720133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes35c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.851,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c54.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes51c53.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.076989.9%62 W · 7 L+25.3wins+0.37per pick53cpaid+111%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c52.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c51.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.722,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes35c51.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.596624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No61c49.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9756322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No66c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No72c44.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2776059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa01d…3c10backed Yes35c44.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.95850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes37c42.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.571,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c42.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.116,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes32c39.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.196827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes39c37.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c35.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c34.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes64c33.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.312,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No61c30.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes40c28.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0647935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No63c23.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5946452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1392761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.628762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0114…f0b9backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No76c19.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7966758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No64c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1227754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c18.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No65c18.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7515749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3825560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No66c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5619769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No70c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4540862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No69c14.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c14.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.354,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No71c14.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.162,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.