Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb18e4b45e01314dc6a5e30e06bea0cd77d81e4b456b86a57dd068e01805424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 5c | 3,789$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 3c | 1,744$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,072$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 668.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 57c | 462.44$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.35 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 18c | 454.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 34c | 349.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 332.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 330.12$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 80c | 245.52$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 219.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 203.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 186.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 159.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 149.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 149.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 14c | 143.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 131.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 26c | 120.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 119.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 47c | 97.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 93.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 28c | 89.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 19c | 83.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 74.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 60c | 69.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 68.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 22c | 66.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 64.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 59.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 75c | 59.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 44c | 57.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 57c | 56.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 22c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 29c | 50.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 62c | 48.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 46.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 39.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 34c | 31.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 48c | 28.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 74c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 71c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 66c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.