Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8cceec85a755c0aef992970e7fb452aae10906f0be8ee95995ad3c42c9e6172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 723.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 585.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 474.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 365.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 80c | 361.52$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 318.43$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 310.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 6c | 301.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 29c | 238.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 237.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 200.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 177.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 176$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 124.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 119.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 119.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 108.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 101.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 18c | 100.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 93.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 82.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 30c | 81.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 40c | 72.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 71.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 16c | 70.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 69.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 69.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 56.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…34d9backed Yes | 24c | 49.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 48.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 25c | 42.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 47c | 40.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 40.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 76c | 39.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 27c | 37.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 66c | 34.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…b5f3backed Yes | 31c | 34.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 32.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 30.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 30.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 26.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 49c | 26.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 65c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…4e67backed No | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 13.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.