South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e84ee5a6d7b8c97efd6c9540857449f682c1e8b5e0c8eb3d9b176251d0f9936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 15c | 6,150$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.54 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 7c | 2,857$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.13 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 1,138$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.51 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 5c | 1,103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.76 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed Under | 5c | 822.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 78c | 782.09$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 56c | 672.43$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.53 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 56c | 591.64$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.64 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 540.33$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.53 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 75c | 532.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 77c | 332.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 75c | 332.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 42 | 81%34 W · 8 L | +12.2wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 25c | 318.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 57c | 247.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 43c | 207.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 43c | 201.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 54c | 185.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 75c | 179.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 51c | 147.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 145.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 67c | 103.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6109…0baabacked Over | 58c | 85.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 84.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 48c | 82.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 63c | 74.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 58c | 72.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Under | 22c | 70.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 43c | 68.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 70c | 59.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under | 50c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Over | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 47c | 34.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 75c | 28.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e79cbacked Over | 74c | 21.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…2dd8backed Over | 78c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.