South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca42ac0d269eed81a4dbe73264bc7965211a3c1be8c9425bd380d426187cf22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 2,383$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.94 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,728$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.63 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 1,589$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.88 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 52c | 1,363$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.08 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 51c | 883.08$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.28 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 880.88$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.87 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 611.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.12 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 47c | 564.63$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.25 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 48c | 511.69$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Under | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 54c | 393$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 51c | 324.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 259$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked Under | 52c | 215$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854a…5e9ebacked Under | 54c | 209.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 108.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 57c | 101.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 94.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 41c | 77.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 64.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Under | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 26c | 59.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 47.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 40c | 46.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 42.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 57c | 42.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 40.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 45c | 32.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 53c | 27.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 722 | 58.6%423 W · 299 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.