South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ba7c7e4b9da1019b3a593e82ee968cbfbd03f914b06de1588264f804445b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Under | 28c | 4,815$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 2,232$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.93 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 73c | 1,378$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Under | 7c | 1,293$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 28c | 890.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 28c | 759.76$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 68c | 677.75$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 7c | 637.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 7c | 438.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 73c | 393.29$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Under | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 73c | 312$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 72c | 249.2$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 72c | 244.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 72c | 234$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 72c | 234$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 71c | 191$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 136.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 72c | 79.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…02aebacked Under | 14c | 79.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 78.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 33c | 68.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 31.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 76c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 67c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…69ffbacked Over | 74c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.