South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb724de975dde7bef80a867c2bcd44d789a139e5d1685a253f22f6306e6c6cac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 52c | 5,603$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.94 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 61c | 4,026$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.86 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 1,432$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.68 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 1,351$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.38 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 1,320$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 1,222$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.82 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 925.21$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 51c | 871.31$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.46 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 26c | 749.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.99 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 14c | 719.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Over | 62c | 468.75$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.13 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 344$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 40c | 338$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 50c | 258.53$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 74c | 240$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 50c | 237$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 13c | 221.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 26c | 220$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 62c | 158.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Over | 62c | 156.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Over | 62c | 156.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Over | 62c | 156.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 62c | 120.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 26c | 110.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 50c | 108.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 62c | 79.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Over | 62c | 78.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…4fdcbacked Over | 61c | 65.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 62c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 62c | 54.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 53.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 74c | 47.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 45.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 48c | 45.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Over | 62c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Over | 67c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7b…a65cbacked Over | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Over | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Over | 62c | 31.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Over | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Over | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Over | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…55abbacked Over | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Over | 62c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 61c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.