South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901e4d7f79bfea1d5777fdbdfb8555eff1f020bab3cdef066e3f72111ccf970b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 35c | 7,618$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.93 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 5,912$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.73 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 32c | 5,261$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.17 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 32c | 4,047$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.91 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 69c | 3,294$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.73 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 32c | 3,075$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.99 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 34c | 2,402$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.88 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 62c | 2,118$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.76 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Over | 64c | 2,052$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.05 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Over | 66c | 1,884$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Over | 62c | 1,816$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.62 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 65c | 1,528$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.86 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 64c | 1,174$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.6 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 6c | 882.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 66c | 799.6$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.39 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 43c | 697.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 28c | 673.53$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 62c | 573.27$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Under | 36c | 535.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…5e92backed Under | 37c | 473$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 73c | 438$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 76c | 409$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Under | 33c | 394.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 66c | 348.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 72c | 343$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 33c | 336.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.36 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…a1c1backed Under | 39c | 321.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 30c | 309.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Under | 24c | 295.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 24c | 257.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 66c | 186.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 67c | 173.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Under | 22c | 169.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under | 31c | 166.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 151.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 71c | 138.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Over | 63c | 135.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +392.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Under | 41c | 130.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…d6c4backed Under | 38c | 128.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 30c | 119.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 71c | 85.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 28c | 67.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Under | 26c | 51.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…67c2backed Under | 36c | 39.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…0751backed Over | 64c | 38.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 34c | 36.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed Over | 72c | 32.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Over | 69c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CS Cienciano won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-2.5)CS Cienciano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.