Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e91c06dabfbcb9531ac6bab4d1ccd767ba1e1bbd6376460074f79b82f029794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 35c | 580.41$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 438.4$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 317.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 55c | 183.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 46c | 148.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 141.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 136$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 133.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 131.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 46c | 121.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 119.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 105.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 27c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 88.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 87.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 84.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 41c | 82.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 48c | 82.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 70.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 61.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 45c | 58.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 36c | 48.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 41.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 39.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 49c | 38.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 55c | 34.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e53…740ebacked No | 53c | 32.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 32.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 59c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 53c | 24.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 48c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 19.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.