Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0239d34bae7db480c6a7b74c2cc98a48ebf31c0e3d6595b4d4c20ef15ee1f00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 80c | 227.66$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 25c | 224.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 219.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 201.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 194.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 48c | 186.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 165.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 131.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 131.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 130.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 128.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 87.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 67.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 57.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 53.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…89e9backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 39.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 37c | 36.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 36.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 77c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 23.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 48c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 47c | 21.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 21.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 21.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…f436backed No | 59c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.