MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea94805c54bb4034ff0813d9bddb798889f68236b15303e7e5567daf3f72ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Guardians, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $473,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $546,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 41c | 47,521$19,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,623.44 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 62c | 39,125$24,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,959.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians | 11c | 22,113$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.24 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Guardians | 3c | 20,934$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.49 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Nationals | 66c | 14,240$9,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.67 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Guardians | 1c | 12,580$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Guardians | 21c | 12,577$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…0d4bbacked Guardians | 2c | 11,862$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +288%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Guardians | 0c | 9,032$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Nationals | 52c | 8,800$4,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,265.76 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Guardians | 0c | 8,123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Guardians | 2c | 7,109$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Guardians | 37c | 7,021$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.28 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 12c | 7,007$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Guardians | 1c | 5,833$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 585 | 2.1%12 W · 573 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Guardians | 0c | 5,583$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nationals | 52c | 4,206$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.67 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Nationals | 54c | 3,477$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a49…7d4bbacked Guardians | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c7…ac9fbacked Guardians | 1c | 2,452$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Guardians | 3c | 2,226$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Guardians | 3c | 2,094$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Guardians | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nationals | 52c | 2,000$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.45 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Guardians | 51c | 1,980$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.85 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Guardians | 2c | 1,807$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Guardians | 1c | 1,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 48c | 1,627$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.85 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Guardians | 56c | 1,496$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.56 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…78f5backed Nationals | 49c | 1,345$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Guardians | 7c | 1,134$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Guardians | 46c | 1,078$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Guardians | 46c | 938.35$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.55 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Guardians | 52c | 825$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 44c | 819.76$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.06 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 32c | 751.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Guardians | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Guardians | 42c | 517.92$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals | 49c | 388$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…bb35backed Nationals | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…05edbacked Nationals | 66c | 291.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Guardians | 52c | 238.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 52c | 191.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Guardians | 21c | 150.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…fb23backed Nationals | 48c | 135.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked Nationals | 49c | 130.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals | 49c | 122.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…6566backed Guardians | 54c | 118.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…57cfbacked Guardians | 54c | 114.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…a6e7backed Guardians | 54c | 107.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…274dbacked Guardians | 54c | 105.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Guardians | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Nationals | 52c | 99.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed Nationals | 48c | 89.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…5747backed Nationals | 48c | 88.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…4f5abacked Nationals | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Guardians | 49c | 75.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Nationals | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Nationals | 67c | 46.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals | 51c | 44.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Nationals | 65c | 44.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Nationals | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…6a46backed Guardians | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.