Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eab087c3d7c03ec5bcb7d845e43ed3b1eff2225b162e0ab42e97bf24ca0cf8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f35…ed78backed Under | 52c | 520$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f294backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…b543backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…acc3backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…67c9backed Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…9185backed Over | 47c | 480$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Over | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…43c1backed Under | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Over | 47c | 410$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked Under | 52c | 410$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 333.92$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…cbf0backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Over | 52c | 67.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Under | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 50c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…2dbdbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.