Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebc2374425886ed8144498b98a06f1a4e08b0b486ab1475038423923a10eda0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 2,118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 731.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 677.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 34c | 586.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 58c | 444.56$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.3 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 403.6$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 66c | 312.56$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 33c | 304.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 232.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 226.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 189.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 183.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 180.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 167.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 166.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 68c | 165.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 36c | 153.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 141.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 131.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 71c | 112.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 111.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 27c | 109.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 72c | 106.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 37c | 99.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 77c | 79.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 27c | 75.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 69.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 66.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 65.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 60.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 27c | 59.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 37c | 59.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 57.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 54.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 53.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 21c | 53.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 47c | 51.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 64c | 50.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 47.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 46.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 45.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 43.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 42.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791c…2ddebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 40.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 39.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 70c | 38.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 37c | 38.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 36.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 35.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 72c | 34.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 71c | 34.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…ae1dbacked Yes | 73c | 26.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 66c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 66c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.