TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7615…308abacked No2c1,316$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8218441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No8c1,083$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.728,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c403.6$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes37c400.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8825933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c386.84$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c349.38$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c335.61$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c283.94$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c262.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.912,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c200.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.266,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes57c181.37$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.916989.9%62 W · 7 L+25.3wins+0.37per pick53cpaid+111%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c180$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes30c165$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11625947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No68c155.51$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe094…11cdbacked Yes29c146.91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.866613.6%9 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No70c142.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed Yes30c141.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6311748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes45c110.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.721,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5712934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes48c99.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2913448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No57c99.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0841760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes58c97.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.774452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4323…f818backed No12c96.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.225313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.975,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes44c90.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3333746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes44c87.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0331936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No57c87.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.872,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No61c86.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes48c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.240461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c72.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.751,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No70c71.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No18c68.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes44c64.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes39c63.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.843,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.49035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.423,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.642,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes43c57.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.562,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No70c57.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c56.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.344,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked No71c56.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.352,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c52.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No48c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.543559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes44c49.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.761855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c48.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.412,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No59c48.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.441,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c46.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.122,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c43.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1946148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c42.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.489,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No53c41.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed No66c40.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9828142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No39c40.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.051,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No76c35.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2510857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c35.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.774,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No78c33.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.416272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c31.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.975,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes45c30.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c30.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.392,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No70c29.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No77c29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.451,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No70c28.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0294066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No70c28.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9821264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes38c27.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No43c27.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd998…918bbacked Yes70c26.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.963053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.082,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes42c25.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6899962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c24.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.114,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No56c23.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2122064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No56c21.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9413751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca5…ddfebacked No61c20.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.282470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c19.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdc4d…50b1backed No56c19.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7112972.1%93 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No71c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No71c16.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No70c16.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4755954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6722…c37cbacked No69c14.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.