CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. Aurora
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1321cd2dceacd021748c123659616df67e1d2e58fa2276b7755a6612b55792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- The MongolZof The MongolZ, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3def…08b4backed The MongolZ | 72c | 4,853$3,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Aurora | 45c | 4,427$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.84 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Aurora | 3c | 4,174$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…c5c8backed Aurora | 50c | 4,014$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Aurora | 45c | 3,678$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.17 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed The MongolZ | 74c | 3,184$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.45 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked The MongolZ | 55c | 3,070$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.29 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Aurora | 47c | 2,015$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.04 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 21c | 1,901$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.14 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 59c | 1,575$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked The MongolZ | 54c | 1,526$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.89 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Aurora | 2c | 1,410$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Aurora | 3c | 1,225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…54c8backed The MongolZ | 55c | 1,084$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.98 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed The MongolZ | 55c | 1,065$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.27 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed The MongolZ | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Aurora | 46c | 976.41$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…19bcbacked The MongolZ | 54c | 893.79$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed The MongolZ | 55c | 876.91$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…3db0backed Aurora | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 27c | 596.19$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed The MongolZ | 73c | 544$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Aurora | 3c | 443.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed The MongolZ | 53c | 440.48$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed The MongolZ | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Aurora | 37c | 345.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Aurora | 42c | 276.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed Aurora | 45c | 271.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Aurora | 17c | 237.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…adf7backed Aurora | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…df31backed The MongolZ | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Aurora | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 42c | 217.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 646 | 52.8%341 W · 305 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Aurora | 47c | 212.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…1a96backed The MongolZ | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed The MongolZ | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d42…9b05backed The MongolZ | 54c | 183.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…8dd0backed The MongolZ | 55c | 182.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…243cbacked The MongolZ | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4efabacked The MongolZ | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked The MongolZ | 55c | 136$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Aurora | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked The MongolZ | 55c | 121.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…892dbacked The MongolZ | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed The MongolZ | 52c | 119.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1375backed Aurora | 49c | 116.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Aurora | 44c | 111.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed The MongolZ | 55c | 106.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed The MongolZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…1eb6backed Aurora | 49c | 86.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked The MongolZ | 52c | 82.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…7936backed The MongolZ | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Aurora | 45c | 70.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed The MongolZ | 54c | 66.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea3…8360backed Aurora | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed The MongolZ | 55c | 60.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed The MongolZ | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…b840backed The MongolZ | 54c | 55.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9d21backed Aurora | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…a0f0backed Aurora | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora | 52c | 45.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Aurora | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…6f44backed The MongolZ | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed The MongolZ | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c15…1ee4backed The MongolZ | 56c | 30.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked The MongolZ | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…d97fbacked The MongolZ | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.