Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1ed301d46e7f5d41583b1bc3c709d578793d75d3b007ef1412fc72d887e3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,327$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.41 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 48c | 2,071$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.94 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 45c | 1,775$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.15 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 769.51$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 58c | 595.01$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.02 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 50c | 587.1$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.35 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 369$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 368.94$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.82 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 61c | 347.18$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 376 | 46.5%175 W · 201 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 45c | 265.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 51c | 226.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 37c | 224$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 41c | 207$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 175.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 52c | 153.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 107.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 101.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 51c | 81.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 50c | 69.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 50c | 66.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 49.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 57c | 46.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Over | 47c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 76c | 40.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 36.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 40c | 28.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 45c | 24.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Under | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)FK Dynamo Kyiv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.