Earnings · resolved market
Will PayPal say "Agentic Commerce" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1fd762290ef34daab93927619d5d78ccba8b973742013f3aec9fc3ac03abc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 49c | 571.77$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 46c | 371.14$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 51c | 342.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 53c | 116.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 104.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 48c | 46.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe298…8ca9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PayPal say "Agentic Commerce" during earnings call?this page
- Will PayPal say "Anthropic" or "Claude" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Bitcoin" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Braintree" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will PayPal say "Cash Back" or "Cashback" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Google" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will PayPal say "Regulation" or "Regulator" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Stablecoin" or "Stable Coin" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Stash" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Stripe" during earnings call?No won
- Will PayPal say "Users" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.