NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f32874a970d77a8689067151742e128dca66613d6e245e4b147088cafac4f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Mavericks, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Mavericks | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 24c | 822.65$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Mavericks | 11c | 702.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Mavericks | 37c | 632.89$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Spurs | 50c | 80.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spurs | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Mavericks | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…5692backed Spurs | 53c | 67.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mavericks | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Spurs | 75c | 50.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Spurs | 60c | 33.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Spurs | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Mavericks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.