NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e32cb8293f20d2ff8304bba88e06360571351222e45b5fc574973197d29a0e3

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $377,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $385,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	51c	308,538$157,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151,205.35	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	150,000$73,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73,500	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Under	50c	90,000$45,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45,000	518	44.4%230 W · 288 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	24,868$11,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,864.84	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under	48c	12,278$5,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,949.66	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1912…686cbacked Over	49c	11,600$5,684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,916	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf88d…796dbacked Under	51c	11,600$5,916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,916	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over	54c	6,315$3,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,929.68	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	45c	5,889$2,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,650.04	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	47c	5,709$2,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,655.81	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd1d1…0139backed Over	50c	5,103$2,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,551.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	46c	4,685$2,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,155	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	564	53.9%304 W · 260 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcf…dff4backed Under	50c	3,933$1,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,966.5	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	3,074$1,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,435.26	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,409.98	795	49.7%395 W · 400 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Under	49c	2,663$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	208	49.5%103 W · 105 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Over	54c	2,222$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,022.22	266	40.2%107 W · 159 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Under	48c	1,940$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.2	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under	47c	1,755$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.91	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e2…2c81backed Under	50c	1,170$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+3.1wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	48c	1,115$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.21	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe70f…94bfbacked Over	53c	1,012$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.79	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Under	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over	52c	809.28$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.6	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under	47c	518.93$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.69	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Under	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	323	47.1%152 W · 171 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…93ccbacked Under	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Over	52c	464.37$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.42	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	48c	460.19$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.89	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	47c	400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under	45c	300$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	47c	299.99$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.02	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	65c	207.45$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.03	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	324	50.3%163 W · 161 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	47c	200$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	63c	166.45$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.89	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over	53c	155.58$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.12	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	47c	143$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.21	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under	28c	142.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over	53c	123.26$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.93	128	44.5%57 W · 71 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed5…472bbacked Under	46c	121.17$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.21	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	52c	112.73$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.11	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under	51c	111.76$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c8…73d1backed Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Under	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe09c…d04fbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under	36c	90.54$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	390	47.7%186 W · 204 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Under	51c	84.34$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.01	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over	54c	73.4$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.4	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over	53c	70$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.13	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	51c	68.91$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.14	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	49c	66.48$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.27	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	43c	59.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under	42c	58.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	433	48.5%210 W · 223 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4863…805bbacked Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4669…9040backed Over	53c	50.94$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over	55c	48.27$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.49	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over	74c	47.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	84	41.7%35 W · 49 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	52c	42.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4841…c90fbacked Under	48c	40.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	49cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Under	46c	39.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	46c	38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under	52c	30.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	409	60.6%248 W · 161 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Under	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	244	28.7%70 W · 174 L	-22.4wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under	48c	28.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	190	51.6%98 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c7…d11ebacked Over	55c	25.13$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.31	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	54c	24.11$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Under	47c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77a7…f330backed Under	52c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Under	48c	22.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Under	48c	22.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	58c	17.72$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.44	181	50.3%91 W · 90 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Mavericks vs. SpursSpurs won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
Max Christie: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event