TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c4,071$2,008 inLost-$2,008.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over51c3,678$1,876 inWon+$1,802.222,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c3,639$1,856 inWon+$1,783.11,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c1,787$876 inLost-$875.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under49c1,065$522 inLost-$521.7237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x822f…669ebacked Over50c978$489 inWon+$489425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c675.61$330 inLost-$329.813,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcafe…eed8backed Under50c542$271 inLost-$271425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under4c292.46$10 inLost-$10.2440849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a49…6084backed Under50c244$122 inLost-$122425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Over51c200$102 inWon+$9841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over51c196.07$100 inWon+$96.0763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd343…8998backed Under51c192.2$98 inLost-$98425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon+$81.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7942…f92cbacked Under47c127.66$60 inLost-$607643.4%33 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c114.64$61 inWon+$53.883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under49c100$49 inLost-$48.53,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under48c100$48 inLost-$4836649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c80$38 inWon+$41.64,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over52c54.1$28 inWon+$25.971,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.717159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under52c30$16 inLost-$15.637959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c7…d11ebacked Under49c24.46$12 inLost-$11.994257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over52c19.42$10 inWon+$9.4233653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.