Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f4ab708fc9075f9eb3dc7a00ab42d3651bdbc892946cfa4bb07604d33375b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 64c | 468.44$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 39c | 269.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 234.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 196.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 136.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 64c | 121.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 57c | 119.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 58c | 117.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 67c | 115.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 108.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 61c | 101.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 97.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 70.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 62c | 65.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 64.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 43c | 58.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 61c | 55.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 38c | 52.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 50.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7e88backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 46c | 43.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 43.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 42.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 40c | 40.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 60c | 40.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 36.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 35.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 40c | 34.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 33.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 33.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 52c | 29.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 29.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 25.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…3880backed No | 57c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 53c | 19.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 66c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.