Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9dd8e81cec6af33cde0aab15cb583d939a8102dce5cf03558197d64c5cda95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 43c | 955.52$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 771.86$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.01 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 58c | 484.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.46 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 69c | 420.68$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 78c | 227.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 76c | 222.15$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 49c | 202.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 184.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 180.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 169.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…898ebacked Yes | 49c | 154.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 11c | 149.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 145.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 141.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 59c | 133$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 48c | 125.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 75c | 125.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 120.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 109.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 101.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked No | 31c | 93.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 47c | 83.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 58c | 75.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 66c | 75.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 72.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 29c | 71.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 71.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 69.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 68.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 56c | 66.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 65.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 53c | 65.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 70c | 57.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 57.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 55.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…d8b0backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…804cbacked Yes | 53c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…6999backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…a08cbacked No | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747e…3e23backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 50.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…1e60backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…c69bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a338backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 46.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 47c | 42.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 65c | 39.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 36.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 33.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed No | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6266backed Yes | 54c | 30.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 68c | 28.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 66c | 21.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…bd7fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed No | 70c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked No | 71c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.