TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No43c955.52$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.491,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No4c900$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes61c771.86$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.0156048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes58c484.33$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No69c420.68$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.274847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes78c227.37$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6145148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes76c222.15$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.928245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes49c202.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2116134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No27c184.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0660523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c180.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No15c169.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadb…898ebacked Yes49c154.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.522133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No11c149.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c145.05$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No46c141.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.241,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes59c133$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2148149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes48c125.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9614452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes75c125.55$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6914043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes69c120.34$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.916,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No50c109.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c101.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.815,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No30c97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.685,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c85dbacked No31c93.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.494311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes47c83.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9320341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes58c75.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.922,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes66c75.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6220662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No44c73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.923,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c72.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes29c71.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.917647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c71.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.055,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c69.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c68.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes44c68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…91e2backed No56c66.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.894746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes48c66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No41c65.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.972,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No53c65.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.546926.1%18 W · 51 L-11.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes77c64.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9961365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c63.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No70c57.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No29c57.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes75c57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2513050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c55.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.437,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb5e2…d8b0backed No46c54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c4e…804cbacked Yes53c54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+124.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee81…6999backed Yes54c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0dc1…a08cbacked No45c52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747e…3e23backed Yes52c51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes52c50.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eb7…1e60backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce70…c69bbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa8…a338backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.550%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No52c49.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c46.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.874,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.449335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes47c42.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9523673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes49c40.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No65c39.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0522853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c38.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.713,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes31c38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes60c36.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes45c33.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.532,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c31.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.554,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdf…8116backed No45c31.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…6266backed Yes54c30.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3a2…2c18backed No68c28.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76663.6%42 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1176936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No66c21.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.475154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28246.3%38 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce6…bd7fbacked Yes73c19.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed No70c17.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.461040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked No71c14.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4916440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.