Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Elon vs. Army
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f5e75c994971aa042564e7e8ad89f567b3be27b175b54d7007dd90d8f4b9144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Armyof Elon, Army
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Elon | 3c | 7,009$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Army | 31c | 3,796$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.3 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Elon | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Army | 31c | 1,541$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.57 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Elon | 69c | 1,531$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Elon | 34c | 877.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Army | 31c | 837.5$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.88 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Army | 28c | 734.07$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.76 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Army | 24c | 564.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Army | 63c | 563.25$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.78 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Elon | 70c | 540.9$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Elon | 31c | 420.52$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…b4f9backed Army | 55c | 372.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Army | 31c | 338$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.22 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…9e23backed Army | 38c | 273.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Elon | 29c | 265$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…3036backed Elon | 6c | 248.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Elon | 39c | 240.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Army | 33c | 167.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…8f26backed Elon | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…780dbacked Army | 78c | 142.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Elon | 72c | 110.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Army | 31c | 106$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Army | 26c | 105.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Elon | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Elon | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7d…3da8backed Elon | 78c | 90.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Elon | 70c | 89.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Elon | 46c | 80.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Army | 43c | 70.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…4938backed Elon | 70c | 68.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae0…2f43backed Army | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Elon | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 65cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Elon | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed Army | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Elon | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Elon | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d25fbacked Elon | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f08…22c7backed Elon | 70c | 25.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Elon | 66c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Elon | 65c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd4…853dbacked Elon | 77c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.