Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9083d0686723b687975413a8bf8963937443a09e6d99bc99c65fcad0df1858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp | 13c | 999.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked PuckChamp | 13c | 657.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 205 | 38.5%79 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked PuckChamp | 18c | 488.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed PuckChamp | 21c | 280.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 252 | 38.9%98 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed PuckChamp | 11c | 245.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…7596backed PuckChamp | 9c | 242.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…ad4cbacked PuckChamp | 11c | 214.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed PuckChamp | 9c | 139.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp | 16c | 138.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed PuckChamp | 22c | 125.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 148 | 25%37 W · 111 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked PuckChamp | 22c | 122.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 654 | 47.4%310 W · 344 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed PuckChamp | 12c | 119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 634 | 47.6%302 W · 332 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed PuckChamp | 9c | 115.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed PuckChamp | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked PuckChamp | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 303 | 51.2%155 W · 148 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked RE.Arise | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked RE.Arise | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 785 | 41.7%327 W · 458 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked RE.Arise | 80c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.