Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3912c9945ac271d9d121fd38c14cc86f35ca55e6386cbea8faf6d5848f3fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked RE.Arise | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.99 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked PuckChamp | 45c | 3,376$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.98 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed PuckChamp | 32c | 2,052$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.64 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed PuckChamp | 37c | 1,722$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.36 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked RE.Arise | 56c | 1,532$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.47 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RE.Arise | 53c | 1,244$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.84 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed PuckChamp | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed PuckChamp | 44c | 963.43$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.64 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked PuckChamp | 43c | 940.83$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed PuckChamp | 43c | 899.2$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.03 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise | 69c | 864.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.24 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed PuckChamp | 40c | 749.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp | 39c | 678.97$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.87 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 655$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.01 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed PuckChamp | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed PuckChamp | 45c | 591.92$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.36 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed RE.Arise | 58c | 510$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…e95dbacked PuckChamp | 45c | 495.65$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 417.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed RE.Arise | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 399.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed RE.Arise | 59c | 394.81$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked RE.Arise | 68c | 389.93$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…c586backed RE.Arise | 63c | 384.46$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…4858backed RE.Arise | 64c | 355.79$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed PuckChamp | 30c | 335.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…21a7backed RE.Arise | 79c | 308.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed RE.Arise | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed PuckChamp | 12c | 245.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 19c | 208.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed RE.Arise | 56c | 179.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac60…b775backed PuckChamp | 43c | 178.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 176$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 170.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed PuckChamp | 14c | 158.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed PuckChamp | 37c | 156$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp | 13c | 149.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed RE.Arise | 69c | 140.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise | 70c | 112.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed PuckChamp | 46c | 107.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed RE.Arise | 55c | 107.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…6bfbbacked PuckChamp | 35c | 105.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked RE.Arise | 58c | 100.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed PuckChamp | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise | 67c | 95.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 94.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise | 66c | 93.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked PuckChamp | 38c | 91.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise | 67c | 81.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…0d8abacked PuckChamp | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 66c | 69.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked PuckChamp | 42c | 66.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed RE.Arise | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed PuckChamp | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed PuckChamp | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked PuckChamp | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…2f40backed PuckChamp | 24c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed PuckChamp | 42c | 39.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f0…6da2backed PuckChamp | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked PuckChamp | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed RE.Arise | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed PuckChamp | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked PuckChamp | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed RE.Arise | 69c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed RE.Arise | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 19.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 60c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group ARE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.