TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked PuckChamp32c10,765$3,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,469.0532549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed PuckChamp32c9,392$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,047.589733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked RE.Arise66c5,390$3,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.9179859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed RE.Arise54c4,200$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9751544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed RE.Arise70c4,016$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.9554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked RE.Arise64c3,746$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.215050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked RE.Arise68c3,730$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.177045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed PuckChamp30c2,900$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.0514825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp36c2,395$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.721,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked PuckChamp29c2,294$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.626744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed RE.Arise68c2,207$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.875244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed RE.Arise74c2,022$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.5130356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PuckChamp31c1,454$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PuckChamp30c1,446$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed RE.Arise69c1,284$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.396440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked RE.Arise63c1,249$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.131735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked PuckChamp63c1,104$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70086659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise68c1,072$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.1595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed PuckChamp17c999.97$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17018143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed PuckChamp30c998$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7241455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked PuckChamp31c972.47$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise69c859.32$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.6566848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed RE.Arise64c753.83$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9645352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed PuckChamp26c739.46$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2647646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed RE.Arise59c700$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked RE.Arise71c671$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.726744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked RE.Arise73c636.79$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9333867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked RE.Arise71c599.96$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.9621558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp30c555.74$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked PuckChamp34c509.95$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2531052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed PuckChamp25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12526247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed PuckChamp44c484.94$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2342053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise65c479.24$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed RE.Arise70c463.78$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.777041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed RE.Arise70c439.99$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.933265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed PuckChamp37c437.5$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise70c432.14$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1613647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed RE.Arise68c380$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.65735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed PuckChamp5c376$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9650032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked PuckChamp41c355.96$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp48c339.8$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.591553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise70c335.76$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.811,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed PuckChamp30c333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.958356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52f6…af63backed PuckChamp17c331.34$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ac…e2a8backed RE.Arise68c326.35$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.352254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked PuckChamp33c325.91$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3161456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac60…b775backed RE.Arise49c325.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed PuckChamp6c322.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.813323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed RE.Arise69c321.74$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.746451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp23c309.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed PuckChamp39c299.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.845457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed RE.Arise69c295$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4547548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb84…21a7backed PuckChamp31c293.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed RE.Arise70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7115848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed PuckChamp16c243.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8212646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed RE.Arise71c224$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4619249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed RE.Arise73c217.77$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6614048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed PuckChamp37c216.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2111753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise71c213.8$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4758943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed PuckChamp21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426759.7%40 W · 27 L+11.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0785…3540backed RE.Arise66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684663%29 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+63.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x08d8…3e9bbacked RE.Arise67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed RE.Arise66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6823736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked RE.Arise72c195.01$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.122240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked RE.Arise71c194.84$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9530844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise72c193.53$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6456945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp34c193.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7538759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed RE.Arise69c191.84$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.371668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PuckChamp38c182$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.479341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…663bbacked PuckChamp33c179.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.162934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb4d…d388backed PuckChamp31c170$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked PuckChamp20c169$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed PuckChamp33c167.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1348057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed RE.Arise71c165.24$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9434041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked RE.Arise68c162.1$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.572846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise74c152.92$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.211,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed RE.Arise70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked RE.Arise69c146.22$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4810244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed PuckChamp39c145$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.559455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed PuckChamp31c144.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8725359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed PuckChamp21c133$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9350247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked RE.Arise39c129.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2233854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise69c124$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.958746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked PuckChamp21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.228336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp31c115.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4381345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed PuckChamp32c114.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9540047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked RE.Arise61c110.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.168538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked PuckChamp30c106.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3237441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d3…271dbacked RE.Arise68c102.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed PuckChamp30c93.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked RE.Arise34c89.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.128846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed RE.Arise71c88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1517443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked RE.Arise70c87.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8915342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked PuckChamp33c85.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0311758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed RE.Arise59c85.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2528252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7415…b585backed PuckChamp24c84.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202334.8%8 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise64c84.25$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.281,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed PuckChamp61c80.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3627636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked RE.Arise29c79.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5222740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp24c71.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0953538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.