Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa3afd0f3159933d1c8cfb5aaccc6fb30bfe432ad5bd5e580c1073efb2297ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 0c | 4,330$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…3fdbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,926$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 11c | 2,675$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 1,129$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…bd50backed Yes | 22c | 926.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 12c | 883.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 20c | 788.32$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 754.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 588.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 5c | 490.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 472.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 9c | 451.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 12c | 434.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 11c | 410.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 403.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 369.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 334.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 302$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 4c | 249.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 17c | 229.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 5c | 226.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 10c | 219.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…29acbacked Yes | 13c | 186.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 10c | 170.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 12c | 160.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 16c | 124.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 16c | 120.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b7…cd9bbacked Yes | 13c | 112.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 14c | 105.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 15c | 104.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…c73cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed Yes | 15c | 70.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 22c | 67.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 56.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.