Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe699aed3041b377312a5d9c82ef21c328ffe28ef40ef26f715ab41d937285aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64ba…ad7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,742$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 1,375$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.84 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 31c | 952.52$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 773.6$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 733.42$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 686.65$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 44c | 601.46$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 587.77$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 571.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 472.51$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 54c | 418.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 403.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 54c | 368.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 54c | 363.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 351.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 35c | 350$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 341.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 340.61$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 329$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 35c | 295.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 36c | 293.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 42c | 281.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 58c | 281.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 256.13$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 18c | 225$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 223$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 39c | 219.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 38c | 215.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 202.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 200.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 39c | 194.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 42c | 193.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 183.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 38c | 182.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 178.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 32c | 169.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 165.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…ffbebacked Yes | 36c | 159.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 149.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 34c | 148.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 145.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 27c | 136.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 133$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 131.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 126.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 30c | 125.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 34c | 118.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 21c | 116.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 29c | 113.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 112.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 45c | 111.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 109.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 107.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 104.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 38c | 104.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 102.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 101.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…eab9backed Yes | 43c | 101.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 45c | 101.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 40c | 101.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 48c | 99.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 98.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 18c | 96.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 96.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 95.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 33c | 95.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 93.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 92.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 88.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 42c | 83.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 80.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 43c | 80.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 77.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 76.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 62c | 72.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…29acbacked Yes | 29c | 71.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 21c | 71.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…61d1backed No | 73c | 68.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 15c | 68.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 23c | 66.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 63.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 28c | 61.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2624backed Yes | 31c | 60.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 48c | 60.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.