Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee22af49c35d91aa5709ac88b5704afb7a6035e0add9e9a62ca2ed1ac199445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 1,592$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 65c | 1,139$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.89 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 885.32$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 48c | 881.68$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.82 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 783.6$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 59c | 657.9$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.16 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 550.84$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 543.42$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 524.52$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.82 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 452$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 44c | 432.24$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.82 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 48c | 417.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 61c | 368.85$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 21c | 314.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 53c | 298.46$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf220…3161backed Yes | 50c | 279.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 57c | 267.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 253.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 40c | 246.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 235.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 61c | 231.46$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 43c | 218.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 36c | 215.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 209.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 49c | 204.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 202.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 62c | 202.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 44c | 202.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 200.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 46c | 168.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 49c | 160.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 51c | 159.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 79c | 156.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 43c | 152.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 46c | 151.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed No | 37c | 137.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 131.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 47c | 123.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 121.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 57c | 120.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…0ea7backed Yes | 44c | 116.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 49c | 116.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 50c | 116.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 53c | 113.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 110.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 108.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…2456backed Yes | 46c | 108.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 45c | 105.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked Yes | 44c | 101.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 99.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 95.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 94.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 91.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 23c | 90.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 89.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked Yes | 50c | 89.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 88.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 88.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 87.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 86.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed No | 57c | 81.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 81.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 43c | 81.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 79.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 78.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 42c | 75.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 74.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 15c | 73.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 73.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 71.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 71.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 43c | 69.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 44c | 68.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 46c | 64.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…2271backed Yes | 57c | 61.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 40c | 58.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed Yes | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 77c | 57.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 56.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 55.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 47c | 54.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 54.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 52.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes | 43c | 51.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.