Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae3b06aa2796558c94044a3b4989b3f80b1deeb11661da7b7bced4dbe813180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,382$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,272$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 11c | 928.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 8c | 900.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 828.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 676.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 631.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 617.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 11c | 612.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 580$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 579.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 571.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 540.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 512.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 466.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 419.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 3c | 319.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 4c | 312.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 295.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 274.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 234.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 10c | 221.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 208$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 16c | 200.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 198.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 16c | 170.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 167.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 15c | 157.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 11c | 155.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 136.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 132.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 24c | 131.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 11c | 129.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 95.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 19c | 93.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 85.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked No | 79c | 75.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 16c | 71.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 17c | 59.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 52.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 78c | 39.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 36.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 80c | 31.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…8eb3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…081abacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 80c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 75c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.