NFL · resolved market
Will John Harbaugh be the next Giants Head Coach?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa74aec07abbb5814044d0e77a67c738c6b4d014237a70c5085936c2200ae34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f62…4123backed No | 23c | 3,719$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 79c | 3,182$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.98 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 78c | 2,911$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.16 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 22c | 2,690$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.71 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,356$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 730.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 654$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed No | 3c | 498.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 61cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 496.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 4c | 491.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…8aa2backed No | 11c | 385.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 7c | 264.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 221.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 148.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 141.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…0d90backed Yes | 71c | 70.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…d567backed Yes | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16df…5620backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…24a6backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…8dfdbacked Yes | 72c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…f897backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Harbaugh be the next Giants Head Coach?this page
- Will Bill Belichick be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Brian Flores be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Jeff Hafley be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Jesse Minter be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Joe Brady be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Kevin Stefanski be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Kliff Kingsbury be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Klint Kubiak be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Lane Kiffin be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
- Will Mike Kafka be the next Giants Head Coach?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.