Tennis · resolved market
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa8cbe8a6c0d5d644b4fede4769c7138cb90e48d7073a18562bdc0a0fcd831d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Under 4.5 | 1c | 1,688$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under 4.5 | 80c | 376.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 4.5 | 20c | 335.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.39 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked Under 4.5 | 79c | 124.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e8…3c36backed Over 4.5 | 79c | 113.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under 4.5 | 21c | 113.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under 4.5 | 69c | 113.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over 4.5 | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 44.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 4.5 | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 4.5 | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno BustaRafael Jodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs BustaBusta won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)Busta won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)Busta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.