Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Busta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8836e44329bc39f8da8f5f716142553f4bcf340e575a3d3c4f2bf6b18be96c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Jodar, Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Jodar | 61c | 971.17$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.76 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Jodar | 70c | 811.79$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.32 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Jodar | 69c | 733.46$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.09 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Busta | 70c | 727.27$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.66 | 332 | 53.6%178 W · 154 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Busta | 37c | 694.86$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.86 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Busta | 36c | 536.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.17 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Jodar | 71c | 420.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Busta | 31c | 416.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.61 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Jodar | 19c | 358.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Busta | 30c | 313.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Busta | 36c | 306.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Busta | 63c | 273.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Busta | 36c | 263.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Busta | 30c | 258.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.16 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Jodar | 72c | 242.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Busta | 35c | 226.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 139 | 28.1%39 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Jodar | 67c | 193.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Busta | 29c | 165.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Busta | 28c | 134.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Busta | 74c | 127.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Jodar | 54c | 126.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Busta | 16c | 101$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Jodar | 47c | 88.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Jodar | 69c | 83.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Jodar | 39c | 78.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Jodar | 47c | 77.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…c88fbacked Jodar | 70c | 71.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Jodar | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Jodar | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Jodar | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Busta | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Busta | 63c | 47.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Jodar | 31c | 39.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Busta | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Jodar | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Jodar | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Bustathis page
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno BustaRafael Jodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)Busta won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)Busta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.