TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,679 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit56c27,034$15,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,07854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons50c24,474$12,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,155.82,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Falcons44c16,649$7,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,323.3422954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Spirit55c15,752$8,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,663.826150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons43c12,949$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,381.0936041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed Team Spirit54c10,368$5,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,623.792450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit56c9,154$5,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Spirit57c7,555$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,306.173435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Falcons49c7,420$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,770.6453451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Falcons54c6,427$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,962.6348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons49c5,721$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,928.4322842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Falcons42c5,651$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.469636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons65c4,849$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.7586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Falcons44c4,794$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.5214253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons62c4,211$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.1466662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons44c3,282$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.7114854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons50c3,244$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.411,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Falcons46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62030336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons52c2,848$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.1918362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Falcons49c2,690$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.2618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Team Spirit39c2,628$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.888749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit57c2,575$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.1442145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons47c2,500$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.6560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Spirit53c2,408$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.3833041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit39c2,376$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.1946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Team Spirit41c2,289$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9359447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Spirit56c2,086$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.3513441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked Team Spirit42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.994346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Team Falcons48c1,891$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed Team Falcons45c1,806$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.064131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit42c1,804$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.972,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons44c1,726$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.8451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Falcons76c1,719$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.6214443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons53c1,680$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.141,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Spirit14c1,600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4131245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Falcons45c1,471$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.5858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Falcons45c1,315$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.98328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Falcons56c1,222$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54235758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Falcons42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69681029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Team Falcons55c1,175$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.714452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Spirit14c1,159$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Spirit41c1,139$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.1214747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed Team Spirit35c1,127$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed Team Spirit57c1,112$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.533360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons48c1,038$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons53c1,027$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.721,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons47c1,016$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.141,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Spirit56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5607950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Spirit27c993.15$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1513027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit57c897.43$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Team Falcons77c896.47$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0219664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Falcons61c880.4$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.2232652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Spirit42c873.64$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Team Falcons45c864$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.29946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons44c864$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.8477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Falcons45c815$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.0525444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Team Falcons48c750$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.22857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons47c650$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Spirit53c632.83$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.49440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Spirit57c626.29$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.138048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons62c607.05$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked Team Spirit51c585.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Team Falcons44c540$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons43c536.33$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons43c529.12$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Spirit44c528.86$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6844149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Falcons46c521.57$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.6551550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Team Falcons45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27517133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Spirit50c499.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9945457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons44c471.3$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons44c467.15$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.531,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed Team Falcons65c463.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.183036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Team Falcons54c453.7$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.75234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons43c450.96$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.0580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Spirit56c442.36$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2245046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Spirit57c438.6$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Team Falcons49c428.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.753964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Spirit60c413.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Spirit55c413.46$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4733644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Spirit57c413.1$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4711043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team Falcons64c399.99$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons46c379.38$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.251,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c27…eea9backed Team Falcons54c373.02$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.833464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Team Spirit57c372.93$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3719162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Falcons44c368.18$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Spirit58c366.67$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21267555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Team Spirit41c320.07$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.697448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Falcons64c302$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2215051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Spirit51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15325147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed Team Spirit46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1373215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit51c270$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.541655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit56c268.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.472154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Spirit58c252$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1612547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Team Falcons64c250.38$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3812661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons63c233.9$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5412638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Spirit53c228.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.811,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Team Falcons58c216.67$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6712455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.