Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd8f7f192217a947d8a0160bf72d3d94a5b5899a7bb6eb7dad28901eed83e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 1,604$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Spirit | 3c | 1,066$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Team Falcons | 65c | 750$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Team Falcons | 49c | 609.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Team Spirit | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Team Falcons | 45c | 587.33$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…f092backed Team Spirit | 54c | 515.92$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…40d9backed Team Spirit | 42c | 475.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Team Falcons | 46c | 426.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit | 15c | 384.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Team Falcons | 52c | 313.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Team Falcons | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6d61backed Team Spirit | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 70c | 268.78$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…14c8backed Team Falcons | 47c | 220.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Team Falcons | 46c | 206.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Spirit | 56c | 203.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…0263backed Team Spirit | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Falcons | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…f563backed Team Falcons | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Team Spirit | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit | 53c | 199.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Spirit | 52c | 189.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Team Spirit | 55c | 183.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Team Falcons | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Team Spirit | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 136.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Team Falcons | 47c | 113.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336d…7c73backed Team Spirit | 27c | 110.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Spirit | 11c | 107.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…1edebacked Team Spirit | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked Team Spirit | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Team Spirit | 55c | 99.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…4568backed Team Spirit | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Team Spirit | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Team Spirit | 50c | 72.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Team Falcons | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Team Falcons | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Team Falcons | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Team Spirit | 53c | 54.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 46cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Team Spirit | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Team Falcons | 46c | 51.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Team Falcons | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f602backed Team Spirit | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 45.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…7f9bbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Team Falcons | 76c | 40.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152b…9430backed Team Spirit | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Spirit | 53c | 29.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Team Falcons | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 27.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…cd54backed Team Falcons | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e7…4f63backed Team Falcons | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Falcons | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Falcons | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Spirit | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde8…3744backed Team Falcons | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.