Music · resolved market
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3faf87a1adc34df42e6579343ba27017acd9c5f720a0106b08c17d6f61f13070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 17c | 11,467$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…0be8backed Yes | 42c | 2,745$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +248%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 80c | 2,100$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 35c | 1,649$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b1…9ff6backed No | 1c | 1,530$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…e3fbbacked Yes | 72c | 1,385$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 58c | 1,297$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 68c | 1,025$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 3c | 973.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 30c | 708.84$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 703.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…d0a2backed Yes | 43c | 575.56$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 3c | 499.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 45c | 425.46$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 56c | 399.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 28c | 380.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 317.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 310$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 33c | 250$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 185.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…bb0fbacked Yes | 33c | 181.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…0e5fbacked Yes | 43c | 177.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 65c | 167.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked No | 7c | 163.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed Yes | 29c | 138.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 127.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…291ebacked No | 45c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…62dbbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 20c | 76.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 33c | 75.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…a5a9backed Yes | 70c | 71.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…1652backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 73c | 70.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…3884backed Yes | 80c | 62.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…7e42backed Yes | 51c | 54.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 45.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…4046backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…7cf7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…5891backed Yes | 54c | 31.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…635dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…ca96backed Yes | 67c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Golden - HUNTR/X" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "back to friends - sombr" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.