Earnings · resolved market
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb4f023c9da4411f88e7891453e16a7820d1e152027e5104dad392b230f69f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 2,509$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.92 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 73c | 700$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 77c | 429.41$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…f622backed Yes | 74c | 415.17$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed No | 20c | 400$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 74c | 271.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 27c | 204.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 70c | 194.88$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…c81dbacked Yes | 64c | 186.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 30c | 151.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 140.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed No | 30c | 134.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 32c | 123.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 73c | 108.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 104.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…f456backed Yes | 74c | 93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 29c | 85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 62c | 83.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953b…27debacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed No | 20c | 58.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +410.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 57.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 76c | 52.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 74c | 39.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 56c | 37.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed Yes | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…121bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…721bbacked Yes | 78c | 17.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 68c | 17.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.