Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fbac43f64292951a43dce821a565685ff36d1bad1228e8b77e79b18c5e68b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 1,634$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 29c | 1,521$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.05 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Under | 80c | 1,242$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 1,102$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.86 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 10c | 999.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 31c | 863.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.35 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 762$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.37 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 27c | 671.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 71c | 508.12$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 30c | 490.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 320.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Over | 32c | 307.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 303.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 282.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 70c | 196.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 70c | 176.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 71c | 168.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 71c | 168.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 30c | 154.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 134.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 70c | 115.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 69c | 110.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 70c | 109.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 71c | 108.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 29c | 104.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd945…fbd1backed Under | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 71c | 96.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 29c | 92.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 70c | 87.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed Under | 71c | 86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 30c | 80.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 30c | 80.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 28c | 71.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 69c | 60.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 70c | 59.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 70c | 59.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 23c | 44.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Under | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.