Mls · resolved market
Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1471c74f6984c598c3b0889777932a4e6e73ed9461508925c8d3ab39654cf06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orlando City SCof Columbus Crew, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Columbus Crew | 49c | 20,000$9,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,797.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Orlando City SC | 51c | 17,951$9,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,795.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Orlando City SC | 52c | 2,317$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.11 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Columbus Crew | 47c | 1,946$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Orlando City SC | 53c | 1,834$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.55 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 79c | 1,583$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Columbus Crew | 47c | 1,263$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Columbus Crew | 44c | 909.08$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Columbus Crew | 15c | 863.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 407.04$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Columbus Crew | 47c | 320.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Columbus Crew | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Orlando City SC | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Orlando City SC | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Orlando City SC | 52c | 174$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Columbus Crew | 48c | 155.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Orlando City SC | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Orlando City SC | 62c | 129$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Orlando City SC | 55c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Columbus Crew | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Orlando City SC | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Columbus Crew | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -78%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Orlando City SC | 56c | 91.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Columbus Crew | 45c | 89.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Orlando City SC | 65c | 75.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Columbus Crew | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Orlando City SC | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Orlando City SC | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Columbus Crew | 45c | 39.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Columbus Crew | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.