MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffbae99cc8f211b4c0f83baeecf86068b3466aa8f8d9d07d43129322131ab47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 4,771$3,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 4,373$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…bda7backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 394.37$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 376.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 293$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 89.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 75.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 70.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 54.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 42.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 41.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 41.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 39.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 36.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.