MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fda82c08fe373f4f8a24c80f853bae6b29c0656c55d018ab114c5830acca695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked No | 52c | 3,690$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.22 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 51c | 2,035$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.06 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,030$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.7 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 49c | 1,975$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 50c | 1,057$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.41 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 47c | 686.6$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 68c | 605.81$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 52c | 576.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.6 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 474.69$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 48c | 407.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 34c | 399.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 50c | 396$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…844fbacked No | 52c | 386.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 63c | 268.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Yes | 38c | 251.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 51c | 248.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 48c | 112.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 49c | 102.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 48c | 61.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…fcbdbacked No | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…32cdbacked Yes | 37c | 53.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 27c | 52.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Yes | 38c | 51.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 65c | 39.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 72c | 34.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 53c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.