Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40149d89eaa7e9258510f2027e50296fb24cc0674d5cf216b3e4af5892b27fee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 673.25$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 593.1$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 460.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 375.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 318.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 271.63$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 69c | 271.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 220.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 197.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 19c | 179.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 154.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 124.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 118.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 98.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 97.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 92.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 35c | 85.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 12c | 83.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 82.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 31c | 79.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 74.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 70.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 76c | 52.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…8284backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 41.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 36c | 41.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 39.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 35c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 36.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 31c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 61c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 41c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 72c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 23.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 75c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 16.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.