Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e8cc6796417e5dd9e22d32222e7ac5c4dbabeb591ecaf24e982416d17885b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 597.28$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 561.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 7c | 450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 358.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 237.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 195.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 159.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 154.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 140.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 51c | 124.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 114.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 111.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 45c | 86.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 16c | 83.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 28c | 82.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 76.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 51c | 74.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 70.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 51c | 66.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 51.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 51.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 59c | 45.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 78c | 41.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 66c | 39.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 55c | 39.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 33c | 34.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 71c | 34.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 34.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 63c | 33.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 33c | 32.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 66c | 32.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 73c | 24.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 22.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed No | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.