Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40187fc077a03c0c6ebdc52985d4c26537d56d119b86f213b6ed2575bf0da0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 5,596$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.47 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,637$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 1,070$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 1,056$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 830.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 630.01$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 613.04$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 583.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 577.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 491.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 7c | 488.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 450.4$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 439.25$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 399.16$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 385.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 379.81$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 375.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes | 11c | 356$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 338.7$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 22c | 325.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 324.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 319.63$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 303.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 281.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 267.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 47c | 260.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 259.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 243.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 236.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 17c | 208.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 206.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 206.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 22c | 203$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 40c | 187.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 26c | 182$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 181.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 181.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 171.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 60c | 166.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 8c | 165.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…32cabacked Yes | 21c | 159.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 159.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 7c | 157.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 157.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 152.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 151$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 147.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 37c | 141.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 20c | 139.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 15c | 138.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 129.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 39c | 126.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 39c | 115.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 23c | 114.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 113.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 109.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 62c | 107.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 65c | 106.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 106.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 30c | 102.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 40c | 100.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 46c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 96.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 92.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 87.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 81.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 80.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 59c | 79.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 79.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 31c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 15c | 76.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 50c | 71.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 70.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 70.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 76c | 69.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 66c | 67.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 38c | 66.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 63.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 66c | 63.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 62.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 61.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 24c | 60.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 59.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.