Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7b287b3dfa1fcfb0b6802e7c253666febc2c4c50963bcf45cc2cb11b85c54a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 7c | 6,016$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…b6f1backed No | 17c | 2,769$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 2,421$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…d25fbacked No | 14c | 2,221$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 2c | 1,488$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 1,228$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.01 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 31c | 969.48$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.88 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 934.51$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 861.23$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 65c | 777.81$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.4 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 72c | 682.13$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 624.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 21c | 605.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.69 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 451.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 72c | 393.82$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 388$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 387.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 10c | 370.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 17c | 357.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 341.45$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 320.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 21c | 319.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 303.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 288.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 281$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 277.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 273.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 27c | 270.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 67c | 255$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 214.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 73c | 213$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 204.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 201$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 10c | 198.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 197.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 18c | 191$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 186.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 21c | 168.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 70c | 164.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 36c | 153.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 16c | 150.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 133$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 16c | 131.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 123.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 62c | 115.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 20c | 115.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 109.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 15c | 107.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 65c | 107.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 18c | 104.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 104.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 101.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 101.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 22c | 90.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 88.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 17c | 82.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Yes | 32c | 78.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…d111backed No | 41c | 64.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…9149backed No | 17c | 62.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 77c | 62.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 18c | 60.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 36c | 55.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 33c | 55.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 21c | 54.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 79c | 52.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 52.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 51.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 24c | 50.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 29c | 50.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 47.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 29c | 46.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 70c | 45.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 41.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.