Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0a5e015ff707677087eb328cf250fc12e9f6061ba7536f1764af7b265feef9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 1c | 4,375$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 2,805$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 14c | 1,129$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 922.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 720.25$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 676.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 600.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 339.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 12c | 297.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 8c | 289.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 269.38$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 231$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 25c | 219.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 22c | 213.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 14c | 213.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 208.7$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 80c | 206.86$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 202.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 201.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 13c | 191.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 190.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 21c | 184.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 181.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 71c | 177.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 172.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 12c | 168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 162.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 37c | 161.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 154.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 152.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 32c | 139.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 10c | 139.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 139.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 131.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 33c | 121.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 17c | 114.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 112.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 109.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 49c | 109.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 60c | 109.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 42c | 102.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 18c | 94.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 90.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 88.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 86.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 15c | 85.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 84.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 36c | 83.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 43c | 77.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 76.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 23c | 76.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 73.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…794cbacked Yes | 27c | 66.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…32cabacked Yes | 19c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 63.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 56c | 62.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 53c | 60.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…23dbbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 74c | 59.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 72c | 56.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 58c | 55.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 44c | 53.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 34c | 53.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 51.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 50.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…3f64backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 34c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 47.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…8e8abacked Yes | 34c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 33c | 42.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 69c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 41.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 57c | 36.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…c855backed Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…05cdbacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 58c | 31.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.