Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $190?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401a0d7883ac3f79d41f99099c5538976f87e8d14bb5c50acd1e866e52d9bddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 69c | 1,345$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.98 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 32c | 1,249$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.46 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 70c | 1,171$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.47 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 37c | 666$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 10c | 364.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked Yes | 13c | 342.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…5048backed No | 61c | 308$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 287.82$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 49c | 286.19$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…fc93backed Yes | 39c | 279$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 29c | 275.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8e…4b6cbacked Yes | 39c | 263$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…af07backed No | 61c | 244$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 65c | 225.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 62c | 222$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…3df8backed Yes | 39c | 210$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…c659backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 38c | 190.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 74c | 140.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 21c | 119.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 67c | 76.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…e1dfbacked No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 38c | 61.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…ad14backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…37edbacked No | 78c | 52.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 65c | 42.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 39.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 30.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 29.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 29.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 55c | 19.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $190?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $155?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $180?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $185?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $200?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.