Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Philippines (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403a9366fdba9f0322b6c20a15f841080007f60027f4f59f205256b2d7398e68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philippinesof Philippines, Myanmar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Myanmar | 74c | 646.93$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.87 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philippines | 26c | 457.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.59 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Philippines | 41c | 263.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Philippines | 20c | 257$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Philippines | 42c | 143.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Myanmar | 53c | 123.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +31.0wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Philippines | 27c | 108.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Myanmar | 72c | 89.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Philippines | 29c | 81.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Philippines | 19c | 75.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +20.5wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Philippines | 39c | 75.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Myanmar | 70c | 67.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…740cbacked Myanmar | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Myanmar | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 277 | 67.9%188 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Philippines | 39c | 37.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +22.2wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…c2bebacked Myanmar | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Myanmar | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philippines (-2.5)this page
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Myanmar (-1.5)Philippines won
- Spread: Philippines (-1.5)Philippines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.