Fifa International · resolved market
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x502659cacde85e5a3c44840ad9e1f32dfa88fff26b1ae1f2654d783ebb58cf0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 6,287$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,575.85 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 17c | 3,919$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.54 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 13c | 1,877$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.99 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 13c | 1,521$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.53 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…76debacked Under | 76c | 1,497$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.3 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 20c | 1,478$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.81 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 14c | 982.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.11 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +25.9wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +129%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 76c | 625$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 79c | 438.72$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.59 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 73c | 400.18$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 4c | 375$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +19.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 4c | 325$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 18c | 299$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.48 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 15c | 272.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 16c | 240$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 13c | 240$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 13c | 225$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.75 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Over | 7c | 216$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 7c | 216$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +22.2wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed Under | 13c | 171.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked Under | 12c | 122.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 17c | 112.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Over | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 17c | 104.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 80c | 97.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 73.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 75c | 66.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 266 | 31.2%83 W · 183 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5this page
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 0.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Myanmar (-1.5)Philippines won
- Spread: Philippines (-1.5)Philippines won
- Spread: Philippines (-2.5)Philippines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.