Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403d53fe54e775d010d98a39f1e8a0bb6d849de1b011c942938e2174577dac7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7be…570cbacked No | 71c | 955.98$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.81 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 76c | 713.95$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 587.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 14c | 321$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 66c | 275$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…8357backed Yes | 32c | 240$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 30c | 232.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 50c | 185.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed Yes | 32c | 163$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 36c | 110.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 26c | 105.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 31c | 94.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 43c | 86.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…fd97backed Yes | 35c | 45.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.